Everything you need to know ahead of Wizards-Celtics play-in game

The most-anticipated game during the first night of play-in action is the Boston Celtics taking on the Washington Wizards at 9 p.m. EST, and we are here to help guide you to winning some bets with the help of BetQL. The BetQL NBA best bet model has run 10,000 simulations on this game and has identified a few winning picks for primetime action. Keep reading to see BetQL’s final game projection, expert picks for the game, and read about the regular-season betting trends that will have an impact on this game.

Boston Celtics Preview

The Celtics are limping into the playoffs (literally and figuratively). This season has been a major disappointment for Celtics fans since they hoped they would be contending for a title, not playing the Wizards in the play-in tournament.

Injuries have been a major issue for the Celtics this season, but even when they have been fully healthy, this team just hasn’t clicked. They will enter the playoffs losing nine of their last 13 games and they will be without Jaylen Brown for the rest of the year. In those nine losses, the Celtics dropped games to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls, not exactly a murderer’s row of top-tier teams. The Celtics are in a major downward spiral, but on the bright side, playoff basketball is much different than the regular season and hosting a home playoff game always makes a difference.

Diving into the betting trends, the Boston Celtics are 33-38-1 against the spread this season, 19-26-1 as the favorite against the spread, and 13-14-1 as a home favorite against the spread. This data doesn’t really make you want to run out and bet the Celtics (-2), especially the 19-26-1 record as the favorite against the spread, which ranks fifth-worst in the league. In the Celtics’ last 10 games as the favorite, they are 3-7 against the spread. The betting trend data doesn’t support a bet on the Celtics, but luckily for Boston fans and bettors, these games are not played on paper.

Although the betting trends don’t support the Celtics, they may have the best player on the floor in Jayson Tatum. A good rule of thumb on betting the NBA playoffs is to bet on the team with the best player. While Tatum vs. Brad Beal may be up for debate, we’ll side with Tatum since this game is being played in Boston. The issue for the Celtics is that they’ll have to rely on Tatum to do all the heavy lifting. The Celtics’ supporting cast has played abysmal as of late and they will need Kemba Walker to play in top form to even have a chance to win this game. Marcus Smart will be back in the lineup and most likely will have the tall task of attempting to slow down Beal. Smart’s defense may be able to keep the Celtics in the game, but his poor shooting could be what spoils the Celtics chances, as Smart hasn’t shot over 33% from three in the past month.

Washington Wizards Preview

The Wizards have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA, only losing nine games since April 1 so they may be the last team that the Celtics wanted to see in this play-in matchup. The Wizards had a terrible start to their season, with a 6-17 record followed by a six-game postponement due to COVID, and it seemed like they were dead in the water. The Wizards rallied back in the second half of the season, which included an eight-game winning streak and ended the year on a 17-6 run. The Wizards come into this game with all the momentum in the world, but can they beat a difficult team on the road to advance?

Diving into the betting trends for the Wizards can be a bit misleading because they were so bad at the start of the season, but this data could still be an indicator for betting this game. On the year, the Wizards were 41-30-1 against the spread, 29-20 against the spread as an underdog, and 17-11 as a road underdog. Again, this data is a bit skewed as the Wizards have been given a few healthy spreads throughout the year. This betting trend data would lead you to believe the Wizards aren’t a great pick here, but don’t let the data mislead you around this play-in game.

The Wizards’ key to success in the second half of the year has been their overwhelming offense, which ranks third in the NBA in points per game. Bradley Beal has seemed unstoppable as of late and finished with the second-highest scoring average (31.3 PPG) in the league. In his last three games against the Celtics, Beal has managed to score 41, 35 and 46 points. The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA and they will look to push the ball against this depleted Celtics team. Not only will the Celtics need to deal with Beal, they will have to attempt to stop Russell Westbrook, who has tallied a triple-double in 19 of their last 23 games. Neither team is extremely deep, so we don’t think the benches will play a big role in the outcome, but Davis Bertans may be an x-factor to keep an eye on. Bertans’ role as a stretch four is a difficult matchup for the Celtics, as they are already very thin in their frontcourt, so a few big three-pointers from Bertans in the third or fourth quarter could help sway the outcome.

Full Game Prediction

Against the Spread Pick:

BetQL’s NBA model is leaning toward betting the Washington Wizards (+2) in this matchup. This game should be close, as most playoff games are, so it would be smart to take the underdog with all the momentum coming into this game.

The BetQL model, the betting trends, and our gut are all backing the Wizards (+2) tonight.

Over/Under Pick:

The BetQL over/under model is leaning toward betting Over 232.5 in this game and projects the final-score total will be at 235. Although the model is leaning toward the over, our gut is leaning toward Under 232.5 here. The Wizards have been beating up on lower-level teams recently and scoring a ton of points, which may be why the model is picking the over. Since losing Jaylen Brown, the Celtics have yet to score over 100 points in a game. The Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but we expect the defense to pick up for the playoffs.  

Prop Bet Spotlight:

Unfortunately, the prop lines come out right before game time, so you will have to check BetQL directly to see which props their model likes for this game but keep your eye on Davis Bertans props.

Bertans proposes a difficult matchup for the Celtics and his dead-eye three-point shooting presents an opportunity to bet on two different prop bets: Davis Bertans over/under on points, and Davis Bertans over/under on three-pointers made.

Keep your eye on the lines, but we would recommend betting Bertans over 11.5 to 12 points and over 2.5 three-pointers made.

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