We've gotten some juicy NBA rumors over the past week, but John
Collins' place on the Atlanta Hawks might be the most notable
development.
Shams Charania first reported on Tuesday that the fifth-year big
man was frustrated by his current role
with the team. Collins then spoke to The Athletic's Chris
Kirschner to candidly share his own thoughts, mentioning that
he doesn't love his current usage with the team, and is frustrated
less by the volume and more by the context.
"I’m not sitting here complaining and saying I need more touches
of the ball, or I need to score more points or need more shots,"
Collins told Kirschner. "I’ve never
complained about that. All I’ve said, specifically, if there’s a
way that I feel like is beneficial for everybody — and not just
myself — is for us to be used in the correct way. "
It's fairly unusual for a player to be this publicly honest and
in-depth about his frustrations, and Collins' comments make his
role worth investigating. What do the numbers say? Have things
really changed significantly?
According to Cleaning the Glass, the 24-year-old does have the
second-lowest usage rate of his career (17.9%), and it has
decreased in each of the past four years — something Collins
referenced in the interview. The site's usage rate refers to the
percentage of plays that end in free throws, shot attempts, assists
or turnovers; Collins is less involved in these play-enders.
He's also averaging career-lows in field goal attempts and
three-point attempts per game, but Collins says in the interview
that this isn't what he is frustrated about. This quote was
particularly interesting:
"I just don’t like to be out there running around sometimes,"
Collins said. "Sometimes, you just want to understand where you can
make an impact instead of having to create it for myself. I feel
like that’s where I’m at a lot of times. I’m just having to create
out of nothing, and it’s hard as hell."
How is Collins getting his shots? He's actually being assisted
on 75.3% of his makes, which is a career-high; this would seem to
contradict Collins' claim. Though, that number has decreased in
recent games.
Things get intriguing when looking at the changes in his shot
distribution. Below are Collins' year-by-year numbers regarding his
frequency of shots in each area of the half-court, per Cleaning the
Glass:
- 2017-18: 69% came in the paint | 24% in the mid-range | 7% from
three
- 2018-19: 64% came in the paint | 19% in the mid-range | 17%
from three
- 2019-20: 55% came in the paint | 22% in the mid-range | 22%
from three
- 2020-21: 43% came in the paint | 32% in the mid-range | 25%
from three
- 2021-22: 44% came in the paint | 32% in the mid-range | 24%
from three
Something changed between 2019-20 and 2020-21, and it has
carried over to the 2021-22 campaign. Collins' paint opportunities
have noticeably decreased, and his mid-range attempts have
increased without a serious jump in three-point volume. He's being
drawn out of the paint. Is it a coincidence that he's also
averaging two rebounds fewer per game than he did a couple of years
ago?
Nine percent of Collins' field goal attempts this season have
been pull-ups, according to NBA Stats. That's also a career-high,
and it's historically a shot he's not comfortable with (39.5 FG%
this season). And nearly all of those pull-ups are twos, not
threes.
His playtype data looks suspect as well. Collins is posting up
over twice as often (17.8% of his plays) as he did two years ago
(8.1%), per NBA Stats/Synergy. He's not a good post-up shooter, as
evidenced by the 39.4% clip and 14.0% turnover rate.
Despite being one of the most efficient pick-and-roll bigs in
the league, Collins' frequency in those plays is down nearly 9%
from 2019-20. He acts as a roll man on just 19.9% of his
possessions, which is far behind the NBA leaders. This is partially
because he is being asked to space the floor more often, and that
has come with his elite shooting from beyond the arc.
Then, we get to the NBA's touch data. Collins has a few claims
in his favor. To start, he is averaging about 10 fewer touches per
game over the past two seasons compared to 2019-20. He's also
receiving nearly twice as many post touches. Meanwhile, his paint
touches per game have progressed like this:
- 10.3 in 2018-19
- 9.4 in 2019-20
- 6.1 in 2020-21
- 5.8 in 2021-22
Interesting.
Collins is one of the elite "3-and-rim" offensive players in the
entire NBA. That's why this next stat from Sportradar might be the
biggest indictment on his usage. Below is the percentage of
Collins' shots that were either layups, dunks or threes:
- 2017-18: 79.1%
- 2018-19: 82.3%
- 2019-20: 82.3%
- 2020-21: 69.4%
- 2021-22: 68.4%
In short, yes, Collins' role has changed, specifically in the
past two seasons. He is used less for his rim pressure and lob
pressure, and asked to do more out of the post and in the
mid-range. Collins' strengths on offense are pretty clear: he dunks
on people and forces help when attacking the basket, and spaces the
floor effectively. He's a play-finisher, not an initiator or post
player.
I don't want to put words in Collins' mouth. Perhaps he's
referring to other offensive situations that stats don't accurately
capture. It's worth diving more into the film to see visual
examples of where he is uncomfortable.
But there's no doubt he's being used differently. While this is
far from the sole reason Atlanta is plummeting, it does lend some
credence to his public confusion.
THE OUTLIERS (a.k.a. other random interesting numbers I
find in the void):
- I don't really have anything to add, but just wanted to pass
along this awesome visual from Mark Cheung in the
Twitterverse:
- Here's another neat graphic from Tom Bassine. Notice how the
Warriors' league-best defense gives up plenty of threes, but the
fewest percentage of at-rim attempts in the NBA:
- Props to Coby White for finding his rhythm off the bench for
the Bulls. According to Cleaning the Glass, the third-year guard
has increased his points per 100 shot attempts by nearly 10, and
he's now in the 85th percentile at his position after two
below-average seasons. White has improved from an abysmal to
average at-rim finisher and a good to great shooter in the
mid-range and on the corners.