You know what makes the Joker such an iconic villain? Since the
day he introduced himself to Batman and the rest of Gotham City,
he’s found ways to push his criminal deviancy to new heights. After
spending years of wiping out countless innocent civilians, he
ramped things up by making his agendas personal. He murdered
Commissioner Gordon’s wife, paralyzed his daughter and viciously
tortured and killed (supposedly) the second Robin,
Jason Todd.
When Trae Young dropped 32 points in his pro playoff debut and
followed it up by telling the fans at Madison Square Garden to
[shut the front door], he firmly cemented himself as
the NBA’s new villain. And in doing so, he put a big red target on
his back.
To his credit, however, Young has responded to the increased
scrutiny by doing what all great villains do — leveling up his game
accordingly.
This season Young has improved in a handful of one-number
offensive metrics (OBPM, O-LEBRON, OFF RAPTOR and OFF EPM). But even the best catch-all metrics don’t
really “catch it all.” So to compensate, I dug into the film to see
how Young has improved his game since his public service
announcement in New York last summer.
Finishing At the
Rim
A lot has been made about the new points of emphasis in
officiating and how it may be mitigating the value of free-throw
dependent players. Young himself has not been immune to the effects
of the current standard, as his "free throws per 75 possessions"
total has taken a sizable hit from 9.5 to 7.4 (per
Basketball-Reference). Yet, despite his dip in the most efficient
shot on the court, Young has actually managed to improve his
Relative True Shooting percentage from +1.7 to +3.2 (per BREF).
One reason for his uptick in overall efficiency has been his
massive improvement in the second-most efficient area on the floor
— the rim. This season, Young is converting at a career-high 60.0%
clip while also taking more shots from the restricted area than he
did last season (per Cleaning the Glass).
Young isn’t particularly overpowering (about 180 pounds soaking
wet), and while he may be quick, he doesn’t cover too much ground
on a per stride basis. So to atone for his inability to naturally
create separation in the paint, Young has leaned almost entirely on
his craft:
Opportunistic mad dashes when no
bigs are near the paint, changes in speed, wrong-footed finishes,
fancy dribble moves — all of these things are now firmly ingrained
in his vocabulary, and they've contributed to his rise as an
above-average finisher.
Perimeter
Shooting
Young has also laid to rest the big-brain take that he’s somehow
actually “not that great of a shooter.” This year, he’s shooting
more threes than he was last season and knocking them down from
each region at a more efficient rate:
Young Shooting By Distance (note: mobile users
scroll right to see full table)
Shot Distance
|
Young '20-21
|
Young '21-22
|
20-24 ft.
|
37.2%
|
45.1%
|
25-29 ft.
|
33.2%
|
38.0%
|
30-34 ft.
|
31.3%
|
38.3%
|
*Data Provided by NBA.com
Young’s marketable improvement from 30-to- 34 feet (a.k.a.
way downtown) is particularly significant because he’s
launching shots from those lengths (1.5 attempts
per game) more often than he has his entire career.
His proficiency in these spots also has a warping effect on the
floor. Defenses must account for his presence at all times, even
when he’s hanging around in a different continent.
In this clip, promising young Raptors rookie Scottie Barnes is
relegated to bystander status on this possession because he must
respect Young’s shooting prowess, which in turn effectively creates
a 4-on-4 situation for the Atlanta Hawks’ offense. This
defense-altering gravity allows Young to provide meaningful
off-ball value in spite of being rather sedentary without the ball
in his hands (similar to one Eric Gordon).
Picking Up The
Pace
Young lacks the body type and playstyle that are emblematic of
most transition warriors. As we mentioned, his strides are too
abbreviated for him to use his speed to race past people, and his
offensive philosophy comes from the slower, more probing Chris
Paul-sian school of thought.
However, even with these limitations, he’s made a concerted
effort to maximize his opportunities on the break. Young is
averaging 1.11 points per transition possession, the highest mark
of his career (per NBA.com). And he’s managing this by leveraging
the skills that make him such a cool customer in the half-court:
elite passing and a knack for knowing when to slow things down or
speed them up.
Even after made shots, Young will ramp up the offense by making
passes before he crosses the timeline to help jumpstart his team’s
possessions.
Historically
Excellent
Overall, Young’s subtle growth on that end of the court has been
enough where he is now firmly in the mix as one of the 10 best
offensive players in the world.
What’s even more impressive is his offensive production this
year not only puts him in elite company for this season, but also
places him in rarified air historically among all-time great,
guile-based scoring/playmaking point guards.
Similar to what I did with Jokic and Embiid, I compared
some of Young’s stats to other great offensive point guards of a
similar playing style. The first chart shows each players’ outputs
in Offensive Box Plus-Minus, Inflation-Adjusted
Points per 75 possessions, relative True Shooting and Assist
Percentage. The second chart shows where each player ranked in
those stats compared to other “point guards'' in those particular
seasons.
(Note: mobile users scroll right to see full table)
Player (Year)
|
OBPM*
|
IA Pts per 75*
|
Relative TS%**
|
AST%**
|
Young ('21-22)
|
4.4
|
28.8
|
+3.2
|
46.3%
|
Harden ('16-17)
|
6.5
|
29.2
|
+9.1
|
50.7%
|
Paul ('07-08)
|
5.3
|
23
|
+3.6%
|
52.2%
|
Nash ('06-07)
|
5.2
|
20.4
|
+11.3
|
50.1%
|
Price ('91-92)
|
4.6
|
22.5
|
+7.9
|
37.9%
|
*Data provided by Backpicks
**Data provided by Basketball Reference
Player (Year)
|
OBPM*
|
IA Pts per 75*
|
Relative TS%**
|
AST%**
|
Young ('21-22)
|
1st
|
1st
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
Harden ('16-17)
|
1st
|
1st
|
3rd
|
4th
|
Paul ('07-08)
|
1st
|
2nd
|
6th
|
1st
|
Nash ('06-07)
|
1st
|
5th
|
1st
|
1st
|
Price ('91-92)
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st
|
4th
|
*Data provided by Backpicks
**Data provided by Basketball Reference
One thing that stands out to me is that Young is the only one
among these five players to be in the top-three in all these
categories. Of course, this is by no means conclusive evidence that
his performance this year is better than the performances of these
all-timers in those seasons; however, it does illustrate the point
that his blend of scoring and playmaking holds up with some of the
best to ever do it.
This data also indicates that Young has followed up his grand
debut on the world stage with a sequel even more impressive than
the original. And to top it off, this time, he's doing it with the
hatred of the league on his shoulders.
I guess I shouldn’t be that surprised, though, because Young’s a
villain now, and if he keeps leveling up the way he has, he’ll be a
damn good one at that.
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